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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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