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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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