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Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the back of light tight oil production and increased NGLs output from non-conventional basins. US light tight crude production increased by 0.5 mb/d, with the Permian constituting the main source of growth, increasing by 0.6 mb/d, supported by a relatively lower breakeven price and higher drilling rig activities, while output in the Bakken and Eagle Ford declined. Liquids supply in Russia rose by around 230 tb/d. Canada, Guyana, China, Brazil and Oman also contributed to production growth in 2022. These developments were partially offset by supply declines totalling around 0.5 mb/d, mainly from Norway, Thailand and the UK.
Capital spending for oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) in non-OPEC countries increased by US$72 bn y-o-y in 2022 to US$431 bn. It is expected to rise by around 10% y-o-y in 2023. On a country level, E&P spending for 2023 is forecast to increase in Norway, Brazil, the US and Canada by 26%, 15%, 12%, and 8%, y-o-y, respectively. The year 2022 proved to be an extraordinary period for the energy market, with most oil and gas companies witnessing healthy profits. However, the ratio of investment to cash from operations was exceedingly low, since many international oil companies continue to focus on capital discipline to improve their balance sheets. Overall investment levels for non-OPEC supply in 2023 are expected to be just above pre-pandemic levels. However, this is still significantly below the high of US$747 bn in 2014.
For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. There remains substantial uncertainty, however, regarding geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and the potential impact on Russian oil supply. Moreover, US liquids supply developments will continue to hinge on the degree of capital discipline employed by companies and the extent to which cost inflation impacts oil production. Liquids’ output in the OECD is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly on the back of production increases in the US, Norway and Canada. US crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to grow by 0.7 mb/d, with NGLs and biofuel production also expected to rise. In the US, the oil rig count has rebounded from 490 units in January 2022 to 591 units in the last week of April 2023. Moreover, US core oil frac operations continue to stay above 1,000, on a monthly basis. Canadian oil production, particularly Alberta’s oil sands, is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2023. Production growth in the North Sea and OECD Europe countries is also projected at around 0.2 mb/d, mainly supported by the ramp-up of the second phase of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field development.
In the non-OECD region, Latin America is forecast to be the key driver for liquids supply. Output in the region is set to increase by 0.4 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly from five offshore startups in Brazil and stable production at the Liza FPSOs in Guyana. Liquids output in Kazakhstan and China is also expected to rise y-o-y, by around 110 tb/d and 70 tb/d, respectively.
Uncertainties to the forecast remain large, especially given ongoing geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. Moreover, high inflation levels, coupled with supply chain issues and monetary tightening by major central banks may also impact the cost of oil production and upstream sector investment levels. Given the uncertainties ahead, OPEC Member Countries and countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will continue to closely monitor market developments over the remainder of the year, to help safeguard a stable and balanced market for the benefit of both consumers and producers.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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