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Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the back of light tight oil production and increased NGLs output from non-conventional basins. US light tight crude production increased by 0.5 mb/d, with the Permian constituting the main source of growth, increasing by 0.6 mb/d, supported by a relatively lower breakeven price and higher drilling rig activities, while output in the Bakken and Eagle Ford declined. Liquids supply in Russia rose by around 230 tb/d. Canada, Guyana, China, Brazil and Oman also contributed to production growth in 2022. These developments were partially offset by supply declines totalling around 0.5 mb/d, mainly from Norway, Thailand and the UK.
Capital spending for oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) in non-OPEC countries increased by US$72 bn y-o-y in 2022 to US$431 bn. It is expected to rise by around 10% y-o-y in 2023. On a country level, E&P spending for 2023 is forecast to increase in Norway, Brazil, the US and Canada by 26%, 15%, 12%, and 8%, y-o-y, respectively. The year 2022 proved to be an extraordinary period for the energy market, with most oil and gas companies witnessing healthy profits. However, the ratio of investment to cash from operations was exceedingly low, since many international oil companies continue to focus on capital discipline to improve their balance sheets. Overall investment levels for non-OPEC supply in 2023 are expected to be just above pre-pandemic levels. However, this is still significantly below the high of US$747 bn in 2014.
For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. There remains substantial uncertainty, however, regarding geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and the potential impact on Russian oil supply. Moreover, US liquids supply developments will continue to hinge on the degree of capital discipline employed by companies and the extent to which cost inflation impacts oil production. Liquids’ output in the OECD is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly on the back of production increases in the US, Norway and Canada. US crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to grow by 0.7 mb/d, with NGLs and biofuel production also expected to rise. In the US, the oil rig count has rebounded from 490 units in January 2022 to 591 units in the last week of April 2023. Moreover, US core oil frac operations continue to stay above 1,000, on a monthly basis. Canadian oil production, particularly Alberta’s oil sands, is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2023. Production growth in the North Sea and OECD Europe countries is also projected at around 0.2 mb/d, mainly supported by the ramp-up of the second phase of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field development.
In the non-OECD region, Latin America is forecast to be the key driver for liquids supply. Output in the region is set to increase by 0.4 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly from five offshore startups in Brazil and stable production at the Liza FPSOs in Guyana. Liquids output in Kazakhstan and China is also expected to rise y-o-y, by around 110 tb/d and 70 tb/d, respectively.
Uncertainties to the forecast remain large, especially given ongoing geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. Moreover, high inflation levels, coupled with supply chain issues and monetary tightening by major central banks may also impact the cost of oil production and upstream sector investment levels. Given the uncertainties ahead, OPEC Member Countries and countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will continue to closely monitor market developments over the remainder of the year, to help safeguard a stable and balanced market for the benefit of both consumers and producers.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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