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Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the back of light tight oil production and increased NGLs output from non-conventional basins. US light tight crude production increased by 0.5 mb/d, with the Permian constituting the main source of growth, increasing by 0.6 mb/d, supported by a relatively lower breakeven price and higher drilling rig activities, while output in the Bakken and Eagle Ford declined. Liquids supply in Russia rose by around 230 tb/d. Canada, Guyana, China, Brazil and Oman also contributed to production growth in 2022. These developments were partially offset by supply declines totalling around 0.5 mb/d, mainly from Norway, Thailand and the UK.
Capital spending for oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) in non-OPEC countries increased by US$72 bn y-o-y in 2022 to US$431 bn. It is expected to rise by around 10% y-o-y in 2023. On a country level, E&P spending for 2023 is forecast to increase in Norway, Brazil, the US and Canada by 26%, 15%, 12%, and 8%, y-o-y, respectively. The year 2022 proved to be an extraordinary period for the energy market, with most oil and gas companies witnessing healthy profits. However, the ratio of investment to cash from operations was exceedingly low, since many international oil companies continue to focus on capital discipline to improve their balance sheets. Overall investment levels for non-OPEC supply in 2023 are expected to be just above pre-pandemic levels. However, this is still significantly below the high of US$747 bn in 2014.
For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. There remains substantial uncertainty, however, regarding geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and the potential impact on Russian oil supply. Moreover, US liquids supply developments will continue to hinge on the degree of capital discipline employed by companies and the extent to which cost inflation impacts oil production. Liquids’ output in the OECD is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly on the back of production increases in the US, Norway and Canada. US crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to grow by 0.7 mb/d, with NGLs and biofuel production also expected to rise. In the US, the oil rig count has rebounded from 490 units in January 2022 to 591 units in the last week of April 2023. Moreover, US core oil frac operations continue to stay above 1,000, on a monthly basis. Canadian oil production, particularly Alberta’s oil sands, is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2023. Production growth in the North Sea and OECD Europe countries is also projected at around 0.2 mb/d, mainly supported by the ramp-up of the second phase of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field development.
In the non-OECD region, Latin America is forecast to be the key driver for liquids supply. Output in the region is set to increase by 0.4 mb/d y-o-y in 2023, mainly from five offshore startups in Brazil and stable production at the Liza FPSOs in Guyana. Liquids output in Kazakhstan and China is also expected to rise y-o-y, by around 110 tb/d and 70 tb/d, respectively.
Uncertainties to the forecast remain large, especially given ongoing geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. Moreover, high inflation levels, coupled with supply chain issues and monetary tightening by major central banks may also impact the cost of oil production and upstream sector investment levels. Given the uncertainties ahead, OPEC Member Countries and countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will continue to closely monitor market developments over the remainder of the year, to help safeguard a stable and balanced market for the benefit of both consumers and producers.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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