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Sunday, 22 November 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AT US$ 25,000/26,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - VISTAAR ANALYSIS
 COALspot.com (Singapore): Analyised by Capt. Radhakrishnan Reddy, Managing Director of Vistaar Shipping Services, Singapore.
BDI hits a new high this week at 4,507 points with all other index also going up this week. The BDI increased this week by 396 points up by 9.6 pct. The increase on cape index this week was 359 points up by 5 pct. The Panamax index also maintained the momentum as last week and increased by 466 points up by 11.2 pct and closed at 4,424 points. The Supramax index was up by 340 points up by 16 pct and closed at 2,487 points. The handysize index increased by 118 points up by 12 pct and closed at 1,088 points.
The average charter hire was at Cape / US$ 81,567 per day, Panamax / US$ 35,597 per day , Supramax / US$ 26,009 per day and Handysize / US$ 15,703 pday.
The supramax index in the Far East (S6 route) was quite firm this week at US$ 25,563 per day which is up by almost 22 pct compared to last week. The ECI / China (S7) route was quite firm at US$ 26,735 per day which is up by almost 16 pct compared to last week.
Short period rates for Supramax was at US$ 25,000/26,000 per day for vessels opening Far Eeast / SE Asia. Supramax charter rates for one yea is around US$ 19,000 / 20,000 per day.
THREE YEARS FUTURE
The futures for three years (2010-2012) was almost same as last week and was around Cape / US$ 30,000 per day, Panamax / US$ 17,500 per day, Supramax / US$ 15,500 per day, Handysize / US$ 11,500 per day.
According to data from the World Steel Association, October world crude steel production hit a 14-month high of 112.2 Mt, posting a 13% increase year-on-year. This is the second month in a row when global steel output represented a year-on-year increase. The majority of this increase was due to China and the CIS, which registered growth of 42.4% and 26.9% year-on-year with monthly production at 51.7 Mt and 9.0 Mt respectively.
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which hit a fresh 2009 high this week, should no longer be seen as an accurate gauge of the world economy, but rather a measure of reviving Chinese industrial activity. With about 90 percent of the world's traded goods by volume transported by sea, a resurgence in seaborne freight movement would be a major sign of a world economic recovery.
Indeed, lately, the Baltic index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping resources, including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, has been climbing and hit a new 2009 high this week. But analysts and shipping industry officials said the rise in the index was driven by Chinese demand for iron ore, coal and grains, as well as rising port congestion in Australia and China, and did not necessarily bode for a broader world recovery.
'It is not really Japan, European or other Asian demand that is driving this (rally). It continues to be China,' Martin Sommerseth Jaer, analyst with Arctic Securities, said.
The main index, which was launched in 1985, has remained volatile this year due to swings in demand by China for iron ore -- the primary material in the manufacture of steel.
'Last year, the BDI did work quite effectively as a global economic indicator,' Peter Malpas, group research manager with shipbroker Braemar Seascope, said. 'This year it definitely has not.' The Baltic Exchange said it had never set out to provide economic insight and analysis through the main index, 'but an independent and accurate view' of the cost of moving dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal by sea.
'With so many factors coming into play and driving freight rates, what these figures mean for the wider economy is for economists to decide,' a Baltic Exchange spokesman said.
FLEET STRENGTH
Strong appetite for iron ore and coal in India and China and other industrial activity helped push the Baltic index to a record high in May 2008 of 11,793. But global turmoil, compounded by a reduction in demand for raw materials, manufactured goods and consumer products drove it back down to as low as 663 in December.
The volatility this year on the main index has been also been driven by the availability of large capsize ships, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rather than signals of appetite for raw materials from the wider economy.
In June and November, when the main index rallied, port congestion in China, as well as at coal ports in Australia, tightened the availability of ships, helping to sustain gains.
'The BDI is a reflection of both supply and demand. At the moment, it is being led up by the capes. Clearly congestion has returned,' Nigel Prentis, head of research, consulting and advisory with HSBC Shipping Services Ltd, said.
Analysts say a major factor that is likely to weaken the BDI's connection with the world economy in the coming months is the rising number of new ships set to hit the market in 2010, despite indications of some vessel cancellations and delays.
Shipbroker SSY has estimated net fleet growth in the dry bulk sector of around 40 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) this year versus around 27 million dwt in 2008.
'Trying to look at the BDI as a forward indicator of global demand recovery is a bit risky because we have this supply overhang and that will obviously play a big part in the BDI going forward,' HSBC's Prentis said.
Analysts said the BDI needed a relatively stable fleet level and global commodity demand not just from China for the index to reflect world activity.
'What we could witness particularly in the second half of next year when the majority of ships are delivered is the global world economy going up, but the BDI coming down because the BDI will be reflecting the growing size of the fleet,' Braemar Seascope's Malpas said. 'As the fleet grows, the supply side of the market increases and that creates a lower utilisation of the fleet which will obviously reduce freight rates.'
Malpas said it could be two or three years before the fleet profile would stabilise.
'Obviously not too many new orders will be coming out of the yards post 2012, we may get another period when the BDI is essentially being driven solely by commodity demand,' he said. (Source : Reuters)
The congestion in Australia increased to 124 vessels in EC Australia with maximum waiting at DBCT 30/40 days , whereas Haypoint was around 10/12 days and Newcastle was around 14/16 days. The waiting at WC Australia for iron ore was at 9 vessels.
CRUDE OIL
The brent crude prices remained firm this week at US$ 77.55 per barrel . The bunker prices during the week touched for IFO 380 cst at US$ 475 pmt, however the prices softened by Friday 20th Nov at around US$ 466 pmt for IFO (380 cst) prices ex Singapore.
FREIGHT FORECAST
Click here for Vistaar’ s forecasted (terms & conditions apply) spot freight rates for coal & Iron-ore cargo for specific routes(cs)
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Monday, 23 November 09
INDONESIA MINING RULE THREATENS INVESTMENT DRIVE
A new Indonesian mining rule, limiting contract work that can be outsourced and favouring local players, is shaping up as a new blow to plans ...
Friday, 20 November 09
INDONESIA UNITED TRACTORS PLANS $430 MLN CAPEX IN 2010
Reuters reported that, Indonesian heavy equipment distributor and mining contractor PT United Tractors Tbk plans capital expenditure of $430 million ...
Friday, 20 November 09
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS HOPE RALLY WILL LAST
Boon times are still on the daily agenda of every dry bulk ship owner these days after one of the toughest year in the industry’s century-old ...
Friday, 20 November 09
NTPC LOOKING FOR LONG TERM CONTRACTS FOR COAL IMPORT
Business Standard of India reported that, State run power firm NTPC today said it is looking for long-term supply of coal from overseas market to me ...
Friday, 20 November 09
CHINESE COKING COAL SUPPLY TO BE 'TIGHT' IN 2010, KGI SAYS
Bloomberg Reported that, Stephen Wang, an analyst with KGI Securities in Taipei, comments on the outlook for Chinese steel production and demand for ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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