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Sunday, 22 November 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AT US$ 25,000/26,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - VISTAAR ANALYSIS
 COALspot.com (Singapore): Analyised by Capt. Radhakrishnan Reddy, Managing Director of Vistaar Shipping Services, Singapore.
BDI hits a new high this week at 4,507 points with all other index also going up this week. The BDI increased this week by 396 points up by 9.6 pct. The increase on cape index this week was 359 points up by 5 pct. The Panamax index also maintained the momentum as last week and increased by 466 points up by 11.2 pct and closed at 4,424 points. The Supramax index was up by 340 points up by 16 pct and closed at 2,487 points. The handysize index increased by 118 points up by 12 pct and closed at 1,088 points.
The average charter hire was at Cape / US$ 81,567 per day, Panamax / US$ 35,597 per day , Supramax / US$ 26,009 per day and Handysize / US$ 15,703 pday.
The supramax index in the Far East (S6 route) was quite firm this week at US$ 25,563 per day which is up by almost 22 pct compared to last week. The ECI / China (S7) route was quite firm at US$ 26,735 per day which is up by almost 16 pct compared to last week.
Short period rates for Supramax was at US$ 25,000/26,000 per day for vessels opening Far Eeast / SE Asia. Supramax charter rates for one yea is around US$ 19,000 / 20,000 per day.
THREE YEARS FUTURE
The futures for three years (2010-2012) was almost same as last week and was around Cape / US$ 30,000 per day, Panamax / US$ 17,500 per day, Supramax / US$ 15,500 per day, Handysize / US$ 11,500 per day.
According to data from the World Steel Association, October world crude steel production hit a 14-month high of 112.2 Mt, posting a 13% increase year-on-year. This is the second month in a row when global steel output represented a year-on-year increase. The majority of this increase was due to China and the CIS, which registered growth of 42.4% and 26.9% year-on-year with monthly production at 51.7 Mt and 9.0 Mt respectively.
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which hit a fresh 2009 high this week, should no longer be seen as an accurate gauge of the world economy, but rather a measure of reviving Chinese industrial activity. With about 90 percent of the world's traded goods by volume transported by sea, a resurgence in seaborne freight movement would be a major sign of a world economic recovery.
Indeed, lately, the Baltic index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping resources, including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, has been climbing and hit a new 2009 high this week. But analysts and shipping industry officials said the rise in the index was driven by Chinese demand for iron ore, coal and grains, as well as rising port congestion in Australia and China, and did not necessarily bode for a broader world recovery.
'It is not really Japan, European or other Asian demand that is driving this (rally). It continues to be China,' Martin Sommerseth Jaer, analyst with Arctic Securities, said.
The main index, which was launched in 1985, has remained volatile this year due to swings in demand by China for iron ore -- the primary material in the manufacture of steel.
'Last year, the BDI did work quite effectively as a global economic indicator,' Peter Malpas, group research manager with shipbroker Braemar Seascope, said. 'This year it definitely has not.' The Baltic Exchange said it had never set out to provide economic insight and analysis through the main index, 'but an independent and accurate view' of the cost of moving dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal by sea.
'With so many factors coming into play and driving freight rates, what these figures mean for the wider economy is for economists to decide,' a Baltic Exchange spokesman said.
FLEET STRENGTH
Strong appetite for iron ore and coal in India and China and other industrial activity helped push the Baltic index to a record high in May 2008 of 11,793. But global turmoil, compounded by a reduction in demand for raw materials, manufactured goods and consumer products drove it back down to as low as 663 in December.
The volatility this year on the main index has been also been driven by the availability of large capsize ships, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rather than signals of appetite for raw materials from the wider economy.
In June and November, when the main index rallied, port congestion in China, as well as at coal ports in Australia, tightened the availability of ships, helping to sustain gains.
'The BDI is a reflection of both supply and demand. At the moment, it is being led up by the capes. Clearly congestion has returned,' Nigel Prentis, head of research, consulting and advisory with HSBC Shipping Services Ltd, said.
Analysts say a major factor that is likely to weaken the BDI's connection with the world economy in the coming months is the rising number of new ships set to hit the market in 2010, despite indications of some vessel cancellations and delays.
Shipbroker SSY has estimated net fleet growth in the dry bulk sector of around 40 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) this year versus around 27 million dwt in 2008.
'Trying to look at the BDI as a forward indicator of global demand recovery is a bit risky because we have this supply overhang and that will obviously play a big part in the BDI going forward,' HSBC's Prentis said.
Analysts said the BDI needed a relatively stable fleet level and global commodity demand not just from China for the index to reflect world activity.
'What we could witness particularly in the second half of next year when the majority of ships are delivered is the global world economy going up, but the BDI coming down because the BDI will be reflecting the growing size of the fleet,' Braemar Seascope's Malpas said. 'As the fleet grows, the supply side of the market increases and that creates a lower utilisation of the fleet which will obviously reduce freight rates.'
Malpas said it could be two or three years before the fleet profile would stabilise.
'Obviously not too many new orders will be coming out of the yards post 2012, we may get another period when the BDI is essentially being driven solely by commodity demand,' he said. (Source : Reuters)
The congestion in Australia increased to 124 vessels in EC Australia with maximum waiting at DBCT 30/40 days , whereas Haypoint was around 10/12 days and Newcastle was around 14/16 days. The waiting at WC Australia for iron ore was at 9 vessels.
CRUDE OIL
The brent crude prices remained firm this week at US$ 77.55 per barrel . The bunker prices during the week touched for IFO 380 cst at US$ 475 pmt, however the prices softened by Friday 20th Nov at around US$ 466 pmt for IFO (380 cst) prices ex Singapore.
FREIGHT FORECAST
Click here for Vistaar’ s forecasted (terms & conditions apply) spot freight rates for coal & Iron-ore cargo for specific routes(cs)
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Monday, 23 November 09
INDONESIA MINING RULE THREATENS INVESTMENT DRIVE
A new Indonesian mining rule, limiting contract work that can be outsourced and favouring local players, is shaping up as a new blow to plans ...
Friday, 20 November 09
INDONESIA UNITED TRACTORS PLANS $430 MLN CAPEX IN 2010
Reuters reported that, Indonesian heavy equipment distributor and mining contractor PT United Tractors Tbk plans capital expenditure of $430 million ...
Friday, 20 November 09
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS HOPE RALLY WILL LAST
Boon times are still on the daily agenda of every dry bulk ship owner these days after one of the toughest year in the industry’s century-old ...
Friday, 20 November 09
NTPC LOOKING FOR LONG TERM CONTRACTS FOR COAL IMPORT
Business Standard of India reported that, State run power firm NTPC today said it is looking for long-term supply of coal from overseas market to me ...
Friday, 20 November 09
CHINESE COKING COAL SUPPLY TO BE 'TIGHT' IN 2010, KGI SAYS
Bloomberg Reported that, Stephen Wang, an analyst with KGI Securities in Taipei, comments on the outlook for Chinese steel production and demand for ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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