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Sunday, 22 November 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AT US$ 25,000/26,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - VISTAAR ANALYSIS
 COALspot.com (Singapore): Analyised by Capt. Radhakrishnan Reddy, Managing Director of Vistaar Shipping Services, Singapore.
BDI hits a new high this week at 4,507 points with all other index also going up this week. The BDI increased this week by 396 points up by 9.6 pct. The increase on cape index this week was 359 points up by 5 pct. The Panamax index also maintained the momentum as last week and increased by 466 points up by 11.2 pct and closed at 4,424 points. The Supramax index was up by 340 points up by 16 pct and closed at 2,487 points. The handysize index increased by 118 points up by 12 pct and closed at 1,088 points.
The average charter hire was at Cape / US$ 81,567 per day, Panamax / US$ 35,597 per day , Supramax / US$ 26,009 per day and Handysize / US$ 15,703 pday.
The supramax index in the Far East (S6 route) was quite firm this week at US$ 25,563 per day which is up by almost 22 pct compared to last week. The ECI / China (S7) route was quite firm at US$ 26,735 per day which is up by almost 16 pct compared to last week.
Short period rates for Supramax was at US$ 25,000/26,000 per day for vessels opening Far Eeast / SE Asia. Supramax charter rates for one yea is around US$ 19,000 / 20,000 per day.
THREE YEARS FUTURE
The futures for three years (2010-2012) was almost same as last week and was around Cape / US$ 30,000 per day, Panamax / US$ 17,500 per day, Supramax / US$ 15,500 per day, Handysize / US$ 11,500 per day.
According to data from the World Steel Association, October world crude steel production hit a 14-month high of 112.2 Mt, posting a 13% increase year-on-year. This is the second month in a row when global steel output represented a year-on-year increase. The majority of this increase was due to China and the CIS, which registered growth of 42.4% and 26.9% year-on-year with monthly production at 51.7 Mt and 9.0 Mt respectively.
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which hit a fresh 2009 high this week, should no longer be seen as an accurate gauge of the world economy, but rather a measure of reviving Chinese industrial activity. With about 90 percent of the world's traded goods by volume transported by sea, a resurgence in seaborne freight movement would be a major sign of a world economic recovery.
Indeed, lately, the Baltic index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping resources, including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, has been climbing and hit a new 2009 high this week. But analysts and shipping industry officials said the rise in the index was driven by Chinese demand for iron ore, coal and grains, as well as rising port congestion in Australia and China, and did not necessarily bode for a broader world recovery.
'It is not really Japan, European or other Asian demand that is driving this (rally). It continues to be China,' Martin Sommerseth Jaer, analyst with Arctic Securities, said.
The main index, which was launched in 1985, has remained volatile this year due to swings in demand by China for iron ore -- the primary material in the manufacture of steel.
'Last year, the BDI did work quite effectively as a global economic indicator,' Peter Malpas, group research manager with shipbroker Braemar Seascope, said. 'This year it definitely has not.' The Baltic Exchange said it had never set out to provide economic insight and analysis through the main index, 'but an independent and accurate view' of the cost of moving dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal by sea.
'With so many factors coming into play and driving freight rates, what these figures mean for the wider economy is for economists to decide,' a Baltic Exchange spokesman said.
FLEET STRENGTH
Strong appetite for iron ore and coal in India and China and other industrial activity helped push the Baltic index to a record high in May 2008 of 11,793. But global turmoil, compounded by a reduction in demand for raw materials, manufactured goods and consumer products drove it back down to as low as 663 in December.
The volatility this year on the main index has been also been driven by the availability of large capsize ships, typically hauling 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rather than signals of appetite for raw materials from the wider economy.
In June and November, when the main index rallied, port congestion in China, as well as at coal ports in Australia, tightened the availability of ships, helping to sustain gains.
'The BDI is a reflection of both supply and demand. At the moment, it is being led up by the capes. Clearly congestion has returned,' Nigel Prentis, head of research, consulting and advisory with HSBC Shipping Services Ltd, said.
Analysts say a major factor that is likely to weaken the BDI's connection with the world economy in the coming months is the rising number of new ships set to hit the market in 2010, despite indications of some vessel cancellations and delays.
Shipbroker SSY has estimated net fleet growth in the dry bulk sector of around 40 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) this year versus around 27 million dwt in 2008.
'Trying to look at the BDI as a forward indicator of global demand recovery is a bit risky because we have this supply overhang and that will obviously play a big part in the BDI going forward,' HSBC's Prentis said.
Analysts said the BDI needed a relatively stable fleet level and global commodity demand not just from China for the index to reflect world activity.
'What we could witness particularly in the second half of next year when the majority of ships are delivered is the global world economy going up, but the BDI coming down because the BDI will be reflecting the growing size of the fleet,' Braemar Seascope's Malpas said. 'As the fleet grows, the supply side of the market increases and that creates a lower utilisation of the fleet which will obviously reduce freight rates.'
Malpas said it could be two or three years before the fleet profile would stabilise.
'Obviously not too many new orders will be coming out of the yards post 2012, we may get another period when the BDI is essentially being driven solely by commodity demand,' he said. (Source : Reuters)
The congestion in Australia increased to 124 vessels in EC Australia with maximum waiting at DBCT 30/40 days , whereas Haypoint was around 10/12 days and Newcastle was around 14/16 days. The waiting at WC Australia for iron ore was at 9 vessels.
CRUDE OIL
The brent crude prices remained firm this week at US$ 77.55 per barrel . The bunker prices during the week touched for IFO 380 cst at US$ 475 pmt, however the prices softened by Friday 20th Nov at around US$ 466 pmt for IFO (380 cst) prices ex Singapore.
FREIGHT FORECAST
Click here for Vistaar’ s forecasted (terms & conditions apply) spot freight rates for coal & Iron-ore cargo for specific routes(cs)
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Friday, 27 November 09
BHP SEEKS VARIABLE COKING COAL PRICE IN JAPAN, NIKKEI SAYS
Bloomberg reproted that, BHP Billiton Ltd. has asked Japanese steelmakers to move to pricing of coking coal linked to spot rates rather than negotia ...
Friday, 27 November 09
EXXARO SEES HIGH COAL DEMAND RAISING PRICES
Reuters reported that, South African diversified miner Exxaro Resources said on Thursday it expected coal prices to rise to between $70 and $75 per ...
Friday, 27 November 09
CENTENNIAL SAYS ENERGY-COAL PRICE TO RISE AS CHINA SEEKS FUEL
Bloomberg reported that, Centennial Coal Co., an Australian producer of the fuel, said contract prices are expected to rise in 2010, with Chinese co ...
Friday, 27 November 09
IN FIRST-10-MONTH OF 2009 COAL IMPORTS IN GUANGXI-FANGCHENG EXCEEDED FULL-2008 IMPORTS
According to Customs statistics, during the January-October, Fangcheng port accumulatively imported 3.676mln tons valuing U.S.$370, rising by 53.8% ...
Thursday, 26 November 09
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS TO RISE BY 170 PERCENT IN 2009
According to the statistics released by China's General Administration of Customs on November 23, China's coal imports for October totaled 11.1 mi ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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