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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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