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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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