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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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