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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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