We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
|
|
|
Showing 326 to 330 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
|
| |
| |
|
