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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
.jpg) We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired generation declined each year between 2014 and 2020, it rose 16% in 2021 as a result of increased electricity demand and higher natural gas prices following the pandemic. Despite natural gas prices remaining high, coal-fired generation has continued its previous trend of decline this year as a result of constrained coal supply.
Coal and natural gas are two of the most prevalent sources of power generation in the United States. Natural gas-fired power plants that use modern combined-cycle technology can compete effectively with coal-fired generation because they operate with 30% to 35% greater efficiency. This difference affects relative fuel costs between coal and natural gas and the substitution between the two fuels.
Between 2020 and 2021, the delivered cost of natural gas for power generators nearly doubled while the delivered cost of coal grew by only 3%. The increase in natural gas prices caused the share of total natural gas-fired generation to fall to 37% in 2021 from 39% in 2020. In contrast, coal-fired generation increased in 2021 for the first time since 2014 and averaged 23% of U.S. generation, up from 20% in 2020.
The cost of delivering fuel to coal-fired and natural gas-fired generators depends on a wide variety of factors. Wholesale power prices are generally set by the price of natural gas, and natural gas prices have been volatile throughout most of 2022. Compared with coal-fired generators, costs for natural gas-fired generators are more dynamic. Natural gas is bought mostly in the daily, monthly, and seasonal markets to align fuel needs with power sales, which can be highly uncertain. Costs for coal-fired generators are more static because delivered coal prices are mostly based on long-term contracts and remain relatively steady for longer periods. So far this year, as reported to EIA, the delivered price of natural gas has increased more in percentage terms than the delivered price of coal, but natural gas prices for generators may decrease substantially in the fourth quarter.
Despite higher natural gas prices in 2022, we expect natural gas-fired generation will increase slightly this year, and its share of annual U.S. generation will increase from 37% to 38%. The electric power sector is not moving away from natural gas as we expected previously because coal-fired power plants, which have historically acted as a substitute for natural gas generation, have not been receiving enough coal to meet demand. We expect coal production to increase by less than 2% during 2022, and we expect much of that gain to be exported. We expect that the share of generation provided by coal will return to 20% in 2022, down from 23% last year.
Most coal is delivered to power plants by railroads in the United States, which have encountered a number of disruptions this year. Although U.S. coal inventories have been declining in recent years as coal-fired generators have retired, the limitations on coal deliveries have further constrained generators’ ability to replenish stocks and increase generation. During the first seven months of 2022, coal inventories at power plants averaged 23% lower than in 2021.
Source: EIA
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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