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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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Showing 261 to 265 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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