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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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