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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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