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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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