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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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