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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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Showing 151 to 155 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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