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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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