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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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