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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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