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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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