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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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