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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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