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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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