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Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
Short-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, iron ore and hard coking coal have been cut, reflecting lower current prices and increasing uncertainties over short-term demand. At the same time short- and medium-term assumptions for thermal coal have been raised reflecting increased demand due to the energy crisis in Europe.
Our reduced copper assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect a global economic slowdown and expectations of weaker demand in the short term compared with supply prospects, which we anticipate to lead to a small surplus in 2023, although the market is likely to remain tight. We expect small demand increases in China in 2022-2023 due to periodic lockdowns and a decline in the country’s construction sector, while consumption growth in other regions is only marginally higher than that in China. Nevertheless, medium-term prospects remain solid due to the energy transition accounting for 50% of growth in global copper demand anticipated over the next five years. Our medium- and long-term assumptions therefore remain unchanged.
We have cut the 2022 iron ore and coking coal price assumptions reflecting ytd pricing on lower steel demand, particularly in China, which leads to steel production curtailments and lower demand for steelmaking inputs, falling steel producers’ margins and build-up of iron ore inventories. At the same time, met coal supply has improved as Australian production recovered and Russian producers redirected some of their output from Europe to Asia. However, the market prices for met coal have bottomed out, while some hard coking coal producers started diverting sales to the thermal coal market, which benefits from high demand and pricing. However, our medium- and long-term views of the iron ore and met coal markets remain unchanged.
The lowered aluminium assumptions for 2022-2023 reflect changing market sentiments that lead to reduced prices in the short term, while market fundamentals and our longer-term assumptions are unchanged. Lower demand, particularly due to weaknesses of the Chinese construction market, will weigh on aluminium prices in the short term. However, rising energy prices could turn production in many markets loss-making, leading to curtailment and shoring up prices from further decline.
We have reduced zinc assumptions for 2022-2023 as inflationary and recessionary pressures and energy issues weigh on demand, while mine production remains flat, leading to market surpluses in the short term. However, price-elastic supply should support market rebalancing in the medium term.
All gold price assumptions remain unchanged, reflecting the metal’s ‘safe haven’ investment status amid high geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. The market price has been moderating during most of 2022 in line with our expectations of interest-rate hikes, while the strong US dollar will continue pushing the price down. We expect gold prices to moderate in the longer term once geopolitical risks abate and as the interest-rate hiking cycle continues.
Our increased 2022-2025 assumptions for both thermal coal price benchmarks reflect strong demand, particularly from China, against the backdrop of higher energy prices, particular high European gas prices, leading to increased reliance on coal-powered energy generation. The increased price assumptions for 2024-2025 also incorporate higher coal mining costs and limited expected new capacity in the main producing countries. However, our long-term assumptions remain unchanged as consumption in China should gradually decline.
We have cut our nickel price assumption for 2022 reflecting subdued demand from the stainless steel sector, while production levels remain healthy, particularly in Russia and Indonesia. However, long-term demand from electric vehicle production should support longer-term prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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