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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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