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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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