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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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