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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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