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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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