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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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