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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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