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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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