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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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