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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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