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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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