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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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