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Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the context of a strained global supply chain.
This year, labor constraints, supply disruptions as well as high fertilizers costs led to a tight supply of edible oils, with palm oil particularly seeing its price pushed to record high levels two weeks ago, before softening during the current one amid negative cues from the emergence of the new COVID variant spurring volatility across commodities.
A great shortage of plantation workers who have been unable to re-enter the country due to pandemic related issues in Malaysia has lowered palm oil production estimates for 2021 to 18.3 million tons, down from 19.2 million tons in 2020, while although Indonesia’s palm oil output has been relatively flat y-o-y, its exports are expected to halve this year according to the Indonesia Palm Oil Association, due to heavy export levies.
While the Malaysian government, plans a special approval to bring about 30,000 workers back vs a shortage of 70,000 estimated at the beginning of the year by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, efforts to bring them back will take a while before they reach plantations and start harvesting. A plan which might now be prolonged in the hearing and speculation around omicron variant, the last prompting buyers to begin stockpiling palm oil again.
Palm oil futures in Busra Malaysia have reached back-to-back record highs during the past year, setting the highest on November 18 at MYR (Malaysian Ringgit) 5,446/mt or $1,292.88 ( DEC 21). Industry analysts expect that from March 2022 onwards, production issues in edible oils will ease and post a steep rise after 2 years of supply disruptions. Naturally, a correction on prices is anticipated, however, it is also believed that we have entered a new era of higher price levels that are here to stay.
As far as the freight market is concerned rates for regional voyages to India and China have been moving sideways during the past weeks. On the other hand, FOSFA tonnage, especially on the westbound MR size TC Trip runs enjoyed a good premium, before correcting during mid Nov when the CPP Markets in the FEAST stagnated.
Representative freight rates loading palms oils from South East Asia to:
E.C. India 12-15,000 mtons at 33.00 usd/pmt
W.C. India/Pakistan 12-15,000 mtons at 35.00-37.00 usd/pmt
Mid China 12-15,000 mtons at 35.00 usd/pmt
Rotterdam 40-42,000 mtons at 49-51 usd/pmt
T/C Del Korea-Re-del Cont. 47-51,000 DWT 15,000/16,000 USD/PD (NON ECO ) +2K FOR ECO
Looking forward, there is no sight of supply and prices easing materially until post Q1 of 2022, while inventories will be scarce for the first half of next year. Finally, freight markets are likely to head north alongside a highly anticipated CPP seasonal market recovery during Q1 2022. Hopefully, this time will be more than seasonal, if at all.
By Stelios Kollintzas,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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