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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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