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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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