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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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