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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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