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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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