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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Planning Commission, India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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