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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten images of gasoline queues in the 1970s, but increasingly describes the spike in global fossil fuel prices. A handful of commenters eagerly lay the blame on renewable energy, which they claim has distracted the world’s attention from investments in oil, gas, and coal production that could have calmed markets.
But a sober analysis suggests that today’s energy price crunch has nothing to do with renewables. After all, price spikes aren’t unique to energy. Computer chips, lumber, copper, and iron ore are among the many commodities and products that have seen global price spikes and shortages this year. As the COVID-19 pandemic raged and then eased—alternately slamming the brakes and flooring the accelerator of the global economy—volatility became the rule rather than the exception.
A close look at the surge in global coal prices is instructive. Prices for some low-grade thermal coals have quadrupled on international markets since last year’s lows. COVID-induced volatility bears much of the blame. But price spike also has its roots in the world’s largest coal market, China, which produces (and consumes) half the world’s coal and meets 60 percent of its energy needs from the mineral.
Over the past year, China has experienced domestic coal shortfalls and shrinking stockpiles that forced the country to boost its imports. Given the country’s outsized appetite for coal, even a modest boost in imports quickly sent seaborne coal prices skyrocketing. The recipe for China’s coal shortages had at least five key ingredients, none related to the country’s renewables policies:
A mine safety crackdown. The Chinese coal mining sector has been a risky business. The state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that 225 coal miners died in China during 2020 in 122 accidents. But in the wake of a cluster of fatalities, federal authorities launched a major safety inspection effort in November 2020. The heightened scrutiny was blamed for a slowdown in production that began in April, a month after China boosted penalties for mine accidents. The prospect of jail time made mining executives reluctant to boost output even as supplies tightened.
Curbs on overproduction. China’s coal mining sector had struggled over much of the past decade with overcapacity that flooded markets with cheap coal—making it hard for many firms to find profits. Last November, just as China’s government was cracking down on coal mine safety, it also stepped up inspections for quota violations—once again making it risky for mining companies to boost supplies.
An anti-corruption campaign in Inner Mongolia. One of China’s most sparsely populated provinces, Inner Mongolia produces roughly one-quarter of the nation’s coal. President Xi Jinping announced in March that the government would investigate coal industry corruption in the region in a campaign that would “never end.” (The campaign focused, in part, on companies producing more coal than their quotas.) Top officials in the regional government have been sent to jail for more than a decade, with one given a suspended death sentence. In early 2021, the government was investigating almost 700 corruption cases involving about 1,000 people. The campaign, which was expanded across the country, also encouraged coal mining firms to curb their production to avoid becoming entangled in an investigation.
A halt to Australian coal imports. Tensions between Australia and its largest trading partner heated up last year, largely due to China’s territorial claims in the Pacific Ocean and the Australian government’s call for a “weapons inspector”-type investigation of the origins of the COVID-19 virus. China responded by blocking Australian coal imports in November 2020. The squabble led Beijing to seek out other markets for coal imports from Indonesia, Russia, the United States and South Africa. The shift contributed to a tripling in the price of lower-grade Indonesia coal over the summer.
Weather: Too cold, too hot, and too wet. An unusually cold 2020-21 winter in North Asia prompted blackouts in some regions. At least nine grid systems in northern provinces recorded record demand in early January. Summer heat waves continued to pressure the coal supply. Now winter approaches, and major power plants reported having about a 10-day stockpile of coal, roughly half of last year’s total. The country, desperate to boost coal consumption, faces a new weather-related obstacle: Record-breaking floods have shut down 60 mines in Shanxi province, a region that produces 30 percent of China’s coal.
These factors, together with COVID, helped precipitate a domestic coal crunch in China that quickly spread around the planet. Those who would blame the growth of renewables for China’s coal shortages are grasping at straws. If anything, ramping up investments in renewables would ease the country’s reliance on volatile, unpredictable fossil fuel supplies.
As for China, so for the world. Until the planet completes its transition to a renewable energy-based economy, supply and demand shocks—such as the ones currently traveling around the globe—will be a fact of life.
By Clark Williams-Derry
Energy Policy Analyst
IEEFA
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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