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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten images of gasoline queues in the 1970s, but increasingly describes the spike in global fossil fuel prices. A handful of commenters eagerly lay the blame on renewable energy, which they claim has distracted the world’s attention from investments in oil, gas, and coal production that could have calmed markets.
But a sober analysis suggests that today’s energy price crunch has nothing to do with renewables. After all, price spikes aren’t unique to energy. Computer chips, lumber, copper, and iron ore are among the many commodities and products that have seen global price spikes and shortages this year. As the COVID-19 pandemic raged and then eased—alternately slamming the brakes and flooring the accelerator of the global economy—volatility became the rule rather than the exception.
A close look at the surge in global coal prices is instructive. Prices for some low-grade thermal coals have quadrupled on international markets since last year’s lows. COVID-induced volatility bears much of the blame. But price spike also has its roots in the world’s largest coal market, China, which produces (and consumes) half the world’s coal and meets 60 percent of its energy needs from the mineral.
Over the past year, China has experienced domestic coal shortfalls and shrinking stockpiles that forced the country to boost its imports. Given the country’s outsized appetite for coal, even a modest boost in imports quickly sent seaborne coal prices skyrocketing. The recipe for China’s coal shortages had at least five key ingredients, none related to the country’s renewables policies:
A mine safety crackdown. The Chinese coal mining sector has been a risky business. The state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that 225 coal miners died in China during 2020 in 122 accidents. But in the wake of a cluster of fatalities, federal authorities launched a major safety inspection effort in November 2020. The heightened scrutiny was blamed for a slowdown in production that began in April, a month after China boosted penalties for mine accidents. The prospect of jail time made mining executives reluctant to boost output even as supplies tightened.
Curbs on overproduction. China’s coal mining sector had struggled over much of the past decade with overcapacity that flooded markets with cheap coal—making it hard for many firms to find profits. Last November, just as China’s government was cracking down on coal mine safety, it also stepped up inspections for quota violations—once again making it risky for mining companies to boost supplies.
An anti-corruption campaign in Inner Mongolia. One of China’s most sparsely populated provinces, Inner Mongolia produces roughly one-quarter of the nation’s coal. President Xi Jinping announced in March that the government would investigate coal industry corruption in the region in a campaign that would “never end.” (The campaign focused, in part, on companies producing more coal than their quotas.) Top officials in the regional government have been sent to jail for more than a decade, with one given a suspended death sentence. In early 2021, the government was investigating almost 700 corruption cases involving about 1,000 people. The campaign, which was expanded across the country, also encouraged coal mining firms to curb their production to avoid becoming entangled in an investigation.
A halt to Australian coal imports. Tensions between Australia and its largest trading partner heated up last year, largely due to China’s territorial claims in the Pacific Ocean and the Australian government’s call for a “weapons inspector”-type investigation of the origins of the COVID-19 virus. China responded by blocking Australian coal imports in November 2020. The squabble led Beijing to seek out other markets for coal imports from Indonesia, Russia, the United States and South Africa. The shift contributed to a tripling in the price of lower-grade Indonesia coal over the summer.
Weather: Too cold, too hot, and too wet. An unusually cold 2020-21 winter in North Asia prompted blackouts in some regions. At least nine grid systems in northern provinces recorded record demand in early January. Summer heat waves continued to pressure the coal supply. Now winter approaches, and major power plants reported having about a 10-day stockpile of coal, roughly half of last year’s total. The country, desperate to boost coal consumption, faces a new weather-related obstacle: Record-breaking floods have shut down 60 mines in Shanxi province, a region that produces 30 percent of China’s coal.
These factors, together with COVID, helped precipitate a domestic coal crunch in China that quickly spread around the planet. Those who would blame the growth of renewables for China’s coal shortages are grasping at straws. If anything, ramping up investments in renewables would ease the country’s reliance on volatile, unpredictable fossil fuel supplies.
As for China, so for the world. Until the planet completes its transition to a renewable energy-based economy, supply and demand shocks—such as the ones currently traveling around the globe—will be a fact of life.
By Clark Williams-Derry
Energy Policy Analyst
IEEFA
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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