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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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