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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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