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Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Commodore ResearchExamining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and  iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed resilient during each year where China’s crude steel output growth came under notable  pressure, Commodore Research reported in its August report.
 
Commodore Research further noted, last decade began with China’s crude steel output growing year-on-year by 9%  in 2011, and iron ore imports that year grew year-on-year by a robust 11%. However, 2012 then saw crude steel output grow year-on-year by only 3%,  but iron ore imports that year still grew year-on-year by 9%. 2013 saw strong growth in both crude steel output and iron ore imports (each grew by 10%),  but then 2014 saw crude steel production grow year-on-year by 5%.  However, iron ore imports in 2014 still grew year-on-year by 13%.  2015 then saw China’s crude steel output contract year-on-year by 2%,  but iron ore imports that year still grew year-on-year by 2%.
 
2016 then saw crude steel output grow year-on-year by only 1%, but iron ore imports that year grew year-on-year by 8%. 2017 saw the same growth in both crude steel output and iron ore imports (each grew year-on-year by 5%). 
 
As we have been stressing in our work since we started our consultancy  in 2010, Commodore Research said, it is global iron ore production  that dictates China’s iron ore import  volume.   China has long remained content to purchase as much  iron  ore that  exporters  want  to sell China (as imports are much higher quality than iron ore mined in China).   Year after year has continued to show that China’s  actual iron ore import demand remains resilient even when crude steel output growth comes under pressure. 2018 and 2019 would then go on to see weakness in iron ore imports, but this was not  due to weakness in crude  steel output.   China’s iron ore imports contracted year-on-year by 2% in 2018 and grew year-on-year by  only 1% in 2019, but crude steel output grew year-on-year by 10% in 2018 and by 7% in 2019.  It was not weakness in steel output that led to two years of iron ore import weakness.
 
Global iron ore production was not finding significant  growth at this time following years of weakness in iron ore prices,  and overall global iron ore production was also hit further in 2019 after Vale’s dam collapse in January 2019  (which ended up  curtailing  Vale’s production).   2020 then ended up seeing China’s crude steel output grow year-on-year by 6% and iron ore imports grow year-on-year by 9%.
 
Overall, year after year has continued to show that China’s actual iron ore import demand remains resilient even if steel output experiences low growth or even contracts.     
 
During the last ten years, Commodore Research  said, there have been three years where China’s crude  steel output  grew  by  less than  5%  (2012, 2015,  and  2016) —  and  during all of these years China’s annual iron ore imports set new records.    This historical fact is not making its way into market consensus.  The Chinese government never comes out and states that iron ore imports can find strength even during years where  steel  output comes under  pressure,  but  this  is  exactly  what  history  has continued to show.  Consuming as much imported iron ore as possible  (at the expense of domestically mined iron ore) remains in the very best interest of China’s environment — and  fortunately  for the Chinese steel sector,  the price of  iron ore cargoes are now much more attractive.


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