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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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