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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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