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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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