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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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